MemoCast

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Wiki Log ​

Chronological record of all wiki actions.
Format: ## [YYYY-MM-DD] action | subject

[2026-06-06] create | Wiki initialized ​

  • Created MemoCast raw/wiki structure under D:/git/geniuskey/MemoCast.
  • Initialized schema, index, and starter pages for memory demand forecasting.
  • Adopted the principle: simulator first as transparent scenario calculator, forecast model later.

[2026-06-06] ingest | Smartphone and HBM demand source bootstrap ​

[2026-06-06] ingest | Smartphone content anchor presets ​

[2026-06-06] refactor | Smartphone simulator 3-segment model ​

  • Replaced the older premium/mainstream 2-segment smartphone calculation model with an entry/mainstream/premium 3-segment model.
  • Added tests for segment-share normalization, invalid-share fallback, preset shape, and shipment sensitivity behavior.
  • Updated wiki/components/SmartphoneMemoryDemandSimulator.vue so users can edit share, DRAM GB/device, and NAND GB/device separately for each segment.
  • Updated wiki/markets/smartphone-memory.md and wiki/simulators/smartphone-memory-demand.md to document the 3-segment formula and the source-anchored product examples.

[2026-06-06] create | AI server HBM demand simulator ​

  • Added TDD-covered HBM demand calculation logic in wiki/lib/hbmDemand.ts.
  • Added tests/hbmDemand.test.ts for attach-rate clamping, HBM GB/accelerator, total GB/PB/EB conversion, source-anchored presets, and shipment/content sensitivity rows.
  • Added wiki/components/HbmDemandSimulator.vue and registered it in the VitePress theme.
  • Added wiki/simulators/hbm-demand.md as the AI server HBM simulator page.
  • Updated simulator index, wiki index, HBM market page, VitePress sidebar, and README.

[2026-06-06] create | PC DRAM demand simulator ​

  • Added TDD-covered PC DRAM demand calculation logic in wiki/lib/pcDramDemand.ts.
  • Added tests/pcDramDemand.test.ts for AI PC penetration clamping, weighted average DRAM/PC, GB/PB/EB conversion, illustrative presets, shipment sensitivity, and AI PC penetration sensitivity.
  • Added wiki/components/PcDramDemandSimulator.vue and registered it in the VitePress theme.
  • Added wiki/markets/pc-dram.md and wiki/simulators/pc-dram-demand.md.
  • Updated simulator index, wiki index, DRAM market page, VitePress sidebar, and README.

[2026-06-06] create | NAND SSD demand simulator ​

  • Added TDD-covered NAND SSD demand calculation logic in wiki/lib/nandSsdDemand.ts.
  • Added tests/nandSsdDemand.test.ts for segment-share normalization, invalid input fallback, TB/PB/EB conversion, illustrative presets, shipment sensitivity, and enterprise mix sensitivity.
  • Added wiki/components/NandSsdDemandSimulator.vue and registered it in the VitePress theme.
  • Expanded wiki/markets/nand.md and added wiki/simulators/nand-ssd-demand.md.
  • Updated simulator index, wiki index, VitePress sidebar, and README.

[2026-06-06] create | Cross-domain comparison panel ​

  • Added TDD-covered cross-domain EB comparison logic in wiki/lib/domainComparison.ts.
  • Added tests/domainComparison.test.ts for preset-derived EB rows, demand ranking, base-to-upside deltas, and EB formatting.
  • Added wiki/components/DomainComparisonPanel.vue and registered it in the VitePress theme.
  • Added wiki/comparisons/domain-comparison.md and VitePress sidebar navigation.
  • Updated wiki index and README.

[2026-06-06] ingest | Raw source expansion synthesized into wiki ​

  • Detected 196 non-gitkeep raw files; 189 are new relative to the initial 7 source anchors.
  • Added wiki/sources/raw-source-map.md to summarize raw clusters across articles, reports, lectures, datasets, papers, and earnings.
  • Added wiki/methods/forecasting-evidence-map.md to map papers/datasets/lectures into forecasting methodology layers.
  • Added wiki/concepts/supply-demand-gap.md to separate bit demand, bit supply, and pricing/revenue interpretation.
  • Updated DRAM, HBM, NAND SSD, PC DRAM, smartphone memory, bit demand, and demand forecasting pages with source-backed 2026 signals.
  • Updated VitePress sidebar and wiki index to expose the new source/method/concept pages.

2026-06-06 — Citation and navigation refinement ​

  • Added per-market evidence checklists for DRAM, HBM, NAND, PC DRAM, and Smartphone Memory.
  • Added [[citation-matrix]] to trace raw sources to wiki pages and simulator assumptions.
  • Added [[graph]] to document the raw → concept/method → market → simulator → comparison navigation flow.
  • Added source-backed preset candidates to HBM, NAND SSD, PC DRAM, and Smartphone Memory simulators.

2026-06-06 — Unread raw integration pass ​

  • Re-ran citation audit and found 374 raw markdown files, 30 cited, 344 uncited.
  • Read the 344 uncited raw files from the audit queue and created wiki/sources/raw-integration-ledger.md as the file-by-file processing ledger.
  • Added 5 cluster knowledge pages: ai-infrastructure-memory, channel-pricing-signal, memory-supply-chain-equipment, long-tail-domain-demand, and forecasting-method-library.
  • Updated raw-source-map, citation-matrix, and VitePress sidebar navigation to expose the new raw integration layer.

2026-06-06 — AI infrastructure HBM variable extraction ​

  • Promoted [[ai-infrastructure-memory]] from source cluster summary into an HBM model-variable page with unit/content/attach/realization factors.
  • Added source-backed HBM simulator presets for GB200/B200 192GB and GB300/Rubin 288GB accelerator content anchors.
  • Updated [[hbm]] and [[hbm-demand]] to separate accelerator units, HBM GB/GPU, custom accelerator buckets, CoWoS/package, and power readiness constraints.

2026-06-06 — Source URL visibility pass ​

  • Re-measured raw coverage: 374 markdown raw files are cited; 36 CSV datasets have markdown companions; only internal raw/README.md and raw/INDEX.md lack external URLs.
  • Added Source URL columns to the five raw integration cluster pages and [[raw-integration-ledger]], keeping raw path traceability while making the web source link directly clickable.

[2026-06-07] update | Advanced forecast ensemble and nowcast layer ​

  • Promoted the advanced forecast raw intake queue into wiki/lib/advancedDemandForecast.ts with stress scenario, uncertainty envelope, hierarchical reconciliation, and nowcast adjustment APIs.
  • Updated wiki/components/AdvancedDemandForecastSimulator.vue to show nowcast-adjusted base demand, envelope range, hierarchy total, stress scenario table, and reconciliation rows.
  • Expanded tests/advancedDemandForecast.test.ts with coverage for the new forecast extension APIs.
  • Updated wiki/methods/advanced-demand-forecast-engine.md, wiki/simulators/advanced-demand-forecast.md, wiki/sources/advanced-forecast-raw-intake-2026-06-07.md, wiki/sources/citation-matrix.md, wiki/SCHEMA.md, wiki/index.md, and VitePress sidebar navigation.

[2026-06-07] update | Raw CSV signal interface connected to advanced forecast simulator ​

  • Derived wiki/data/advanced-forecast-source-signals.json from immutable raw CSV datasets under raw/datasets/ without modifying raw files.
  • Updated wiki/lib/advancedDemandForecast.ts with source-calibrated nowcast context, institution forecast band, and high-frequency SIA signal helpers.
  • Updated wiki/components/AdvancedDemandForecastSimulator.vue to show source paths, institution forecast band, and SIA high-frequency nowcast tables as separate responsive blocks.
  • Updated wiki/simulators/advanced-demand-forecast.md, wiki/methods/advanced-demand-forecast-engine.md, wiki/sources/advanced-forecast-raw-intake-2026-06-07.md, and wiki/sources/citation-matrix.md for traceability.
  • Verified npm test, npm run build, citation audit 416/416 raw references, and browser preview at /simulators/advanced-demand-forecast with no console errors or horizontal overflow.

[2026-06-07] update | Advanced forecast CSV-derived presets and SIA chart ​

  • Added buildCsvDerivedAdvancedForecastPresets to convert institution low/mid/high bands plus SIA momentum into conservative/base/upside preset candidates.
  • Added buildSiaNowcastTimeSeries to render SIA sales rows as an indexed time-series chart model.
  • Updated AdvancedDemandForecastSimulator.vue with a CSV-derived preset strip, SIA indexed time-series chart, explicit preset selection handler, and responsive layout CSS.
  • Updated advanced-demand-forecast, advanced-demand-forecast-engine, advanced-forecast-raw-intake-2026-06-07, citation-matrix, and tests to preserve raw CSV traceability.
  • Verification: npm test && npm run build passed; citation audit reported 416/416 cited, 0 uncited, 0 missing references.

[2026-06-07] update | Advanced forecast polish controls ​

  • Added institution-weighted ensemble tuning to convert WSTS/TrendForce/IDC/Gartner raw CSV revenue rows into weighted revenue, demand multiplier, confidence score, and peak effective demand.
  • Added HBM/BOM affordability stress controls for HBM price decline, target BOM share, demand elasticity, and supply-relief pass-through.
  • Updated advancedDemandForecast.ts, AdvancedDemandForecastSimulator.vue, simulator/method/source/citation docs, and tests for the final polish layer.
  • Fixed advanced-forecast-raw-intake-2026-06-07.md line-number artifact while preserving source traceability.
  • Verification: npm test && npm run build passed; citation audit reported 416/416 cited, 0 uncited, 0 missing references; preview browser showed 7 interactive sliders, no console errors, and 0 horizontal overflow.

[2026-06-07] update | Responsive VitePress main width guard ​

  • Updated wiki/.vitepress/theme/custom.css so medium desktop widths use a variable main content width instead of fixed document widths that can sit underneath the sidebar.
  • Added a 960-1560px guard for .VPContent.has-sidebar and .VPDoc.has-sidebar that reserves sidebar width plus a fluid gutter, clamps document containers to the available viewport, and hides the right aside in this constrained range.
  • Updated tests/layoutCss.test.ts to lock the sidebar-safe flexible-width CSS contract.
  • Verification: npm test -- tests/layoutCss.test.ts, npm run build, and full npm test passed; preview screenshots at 1400px, 1480px, and 1560px showed the main view separated from the sidebar with no clipping.

[2026-06-07] update | Existing wiki page synthesis upgrade ​

  • Upgraded existing pages only; no new wiki pages were created.
  • Added synthesis/decision sections to wiki/concepts/ai-infrastructure-memory.md, wiki/concepts/channel-pricing-signal.md, wiki/concepts/memory-supply-chain-equipment.md, and wiki/concepts/forecasting-method-library.md.
  • Converted raw-heavy source clusters into forecast theses, signal interpretation tables, capacity-to-bit conversion rules, and model governance rules with provenance markers.
  • Verification: npm test && npm run build passed; citation audit reported 416/416 cited, 0 uncited, 0 missing references.

[2026-06-07] update | Existing market and method page quality pass ​

  • Upgraded existing pages only; no new wiki pages were created.
  • Added a forecast thesis, decision axes, and anti-patterns to wiki/markets/hbm.md so HBM demand is framed as unit × content × generation mix × realization gate.
  • Added tiering and base-vs-scenario decision rules to wiki/concepts/long-tail-domain-demand.md for automotive, networking/HPC, surveillance/IoT, robotics/XR, and specialty domains.
  • Added an executive model summary, evidence-to-layer map, reader workflow, and model quality gates to wiki/methods/advanced-demand-forecast-engine.md.
  • Verification: npm test && npm run build passed; citation audit reported 416/416 cited, 0 uncited, 0 missing references.

[2026-06-07] update | Wide desktop sidebar width guard ​

  • Fixed the VitePress sidebar becoming visually narrow above ~1800px by reserving the wide-layout left offset in --mc-sidebar-reserved-width instead of keeping .VPSidebar at a fixed 272px while VitePress adds large left padding.
  • Updated .VPContent.has-sidebar to reserve the same computed sidebar width so main content does not overlap the expanded sidebar gutter on very wide screens.
  • Updated tests/layoutCss.test.ts to lock the wide sidebar offset/reserved-width CSS contract.
  • Verification: npm test -- tests/layoutCss.test.ts and npm run build passed; preview screenshots at 1900px and 2200px showed a readable sidebar and no visible overlap/clipping.

[2026-06-07] update | Advanced Forecast Cockpit fullscreen control ​

  • Updated wiki/components/AdvancedDemandForecastSimulator.vue to add an Advanced Forecast Cockpit fullscreen toggle wired through the shared useFullscreenElement composable, with native Fullscreen API support and CSS fallback mode.
  • Updated tests/advancedForecastUi.test.ts to assert the fullscreen import, root ref/class binding, toggle button class, click handler, and Korean enter/exit button labels.
  • Verification: npm test && npm run build passed; citation audit remained 416/416 raw references cited with 0 missing references; browser route http://localhost:5173/simulators/advanced-demand-forecast?verify=fullscreen showed fixed fullscreen fallback covering the viewport with no page/root horizontal overflow and no console errors.

[2026-06-07] update | Advanced Forecast fullscreen header flow fix ​

  • Updated wiki/components/AdvancedDemandForecastSimulator.vue so the fullscreen cockpit hero/header stays in normal document flow instead of becoming a sticky overlay that can cover cockpit content.
  • Updated tests/advancedForecastUi.test.ts with a regression contract that rejects sticky/fixed fullscreen hero styling.
  • Verification: npm test -- tests/advancedForecastUi.test.ts, full npm test, and npm run build passed; citation audit remained 416/416 raw references cited with 0 missing references; browser route http://localhost:5173/simulators/advanced-demand-forecast?verify=fullscreen-flow showed the hero as position: static, followed by Scenario layer with a 20px gap and no horizontal overflow or console errors.

[2026-06-07] update | Advanced Forecast multi-series path chart ​

  • Replaced the Multi-year forecast path year-by-year bar rows in wiki/components/AdvancedDemandForecastSimulator.vue with one responsive SVG multi-series chart.
  • The chart plots unconstrained demand, supply-realized demand, unmet demand, envelope high, and envelope low together with shared axes, points, native SVG titles, and a compact legend.
  • Updated tests/advancedForecastUi.test.ts with a regression contract that requires the multi-series chart and rejects the old per-year bar-row template.
  • Verification: npm test -- tests/advancedForecastUi.test.ts, full npm test, and npm run build passed; citation audit remained 416/416 raw references cited with 0 missing references; browser route http://localhost:5173/simulators/advanced-demand-forecast?verify=multi-series-chart-2 showed 5 polylines, 25 points, 5 legend items, 0 page/chart horizontal overflow, and no console errors.

[2026-06-07] update | Advanced Forecast Chart.js tooltip chart ​

  • Reworked wiki/components/AdvancedDemandForecastSimulator.vue so Multi-year forecast path uses the installed vue-chartjs / chart.js line chart instead of the custom SVG chart.
  • Configured Chart.js index hover interaction (mode: 'index', intersect: false) so hovering a year on the x-axis displays every series value for that year in one tooltip: unconstrained demand, supply-realized demand, unmet demand, envelope high, and envelope low.
  • Updated tests/advancedForecastUi.test.ts to require Chart.js wiring, chart data/options, canvas host, and index tooltip settings.
  • Verification: npm test -- tests/advancedForecastUi.test.ts, full npm test, and npm run build passed; citation audit remained 416/416 raw references cited with 0 missing references; browser route http://localhost:5173/simulators/advanced-demand-forecast?verify=chartjs-tooltip showed the Chart.js canvas, multi-series tooltip on hover, 0 horizontal overflow, and no console errors.

[2026-06-07] update | Advanced Forecast controls linked to chart ​

  • Connected Institution-weighted ensemble tuning and HBM/BOM stress controls to the Multi-year forecast path Chart.js datasets instead of leaving them as isolated KPI cards.
  • Added Weighted ensemble demand as a purple chart line driven by institution-weight sliders and BOM stress demand as a red dashed line driven by HBM/BOM price, BOM share, and elasticity controls.
  • Added forecast-control-impact-summary cards below the chart so the current control-adjusted peak values are visible next to the auditable base/envelope rows.
  • Updated tests/advancedForecastUi.test.ts to require control-linked chart datasets and summary UI.
  • Verification: npm test -- tests/advancedForecastUi.test.ts, full npm test, and npm run build passed; citation audit remained 416/416 raw references cited with 0 missing references; browser route http://localhost:5173/simulators/advanced-demand-forecast?verify=controls-linked-chart-2 showed slider updates changing the control summary, 0 chart/page horizontal overflow, Chart.js tooltip with the added control series, and no console errors.

[2026-06-07] update | Simulator foldable internal cards ​

  • Updated all five simulator components so major internal cards are native <details> foldable panels with foldable-card / foldable-card-summary controls while preserving the sticky primary result rail.
  • Basic simulator workbenches (HbmDemandSimulator, NandSsdDemandSimulator, PcDramDemandSimulator, SmartphoneMemoryDemandSimulator) now allow folding scenario presets, assumptions, and visual sensitivity sections.
  • AdvancedDemandForecastSimulator now allows folding the raw CSV signal panel, interactive ensemble controls, HBM/BOM stress controls, Chart.js forecast path, stress/envelope table, and exact driver table.
  • Updated tests/simulatorWorkbenchUi.test.ts to require foldable simulator internals across all simulator components.
  • Verification: narrow simulator workbench UI test, full npm test, and npm run build passed; browser checks on /simulators/hbm-demand and /simulators/advanced-demand-forecast confirmed fold toggles, result rail remains visible/non-foldable, 0 horizontal overflow, and no console errors.